Arab states: half of the under-30s are thinking about migration

Arab states: half of the under-30s are thinking about migration

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Youth in ten MENA countries show clear signs of dissatisfaction with the opportunities they have in their home countries, as reflected in the Arab Barometer

In Jordan, just over 40 percent are considering emigration, up from just over 20 percent six years ago. In Iraq and Tunisia, the rate of those willing to emigrate is "willing to emigrate" is well over 30 percent, as the graphs show. In these two countries, too, a significant increase compared with 2013 cannot be overlooked. In Morocco, as in Jordan, more than 40 percent are considering emigration.

In Egypt and Libya, the number of emigrants in 2018. In the Palestinian territories and Algeria, the proportion is also just over 20 percent, but it has fallen slightly there, while in Sudan, Lebanon and Yemen there has been a significant decline. However, in some cases from a high level. In Sudan, for example, from 60 percent to about 50 percent.

As news, the Arab Barometer prefaces these figures on Twitter with the general statement that "almost half of adults under the age of 30 are considering becoming a migrant". It links to a BBC article that breaks down the Arab world in seven charts. These show results of a study based on interviews with 25.000 people, which BBC News Arabic conducted with the Arab Barometer research network (Princeton University) in late 2018 and early 2019 in ten Arab countries and the Palestinian territories.

The Guardian reports that 52 percent of under-30s in Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and the Palestinian territories are considering emigration. This is an increase of 10 percent since 2016.

As a motive for the emigration thoughts the interviewees mentioned above all "economic reasons" is stated in the BBC report, where a video explains in more detail how the interviews came about and were conducted. As can be seen from the example of migration, the BBC is very laconic in its explanations for the answers.

"Roughest and most detailed survey in countries of the Middle East and North Africa"

Nevertheless, the Arab Barometer survey is considered to be the most comprehensive and detailed survey in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena region), and it provides some results that are worthy of attention. In an interview, Amaney Jamal, a politics professor at Princeton and a lead contributor to the Arab Barometer, offers some clarifications. The conspicuously widespread emigration desires of the youth in the Mena-Landers evaluates them as "depressive finding".

Since 2016, one has observed a "Dramatic expression" of this trend. The development makes it clear that young people see that their opportunities in their home countries are too limited and that this affects their whole lives. The boys concluded that they are likely to have better opportunities outside the region.

This does not necessarily mean that they all want to go to Europe, as an interactive graph in the BBC report shows. But it also shows that more and mostly thicker lines went to Europe than to North America, the Gulf states or the Mena states.

More detailed graphs on the jump in emigration desires in 2016, such as this one on Morocco, which was just released yesterday (Thursday), show that there’s still quite a bit of study up the sleeve there. Apparently, the study is being released in fragments (as the somewhat more detailed study report in the Guardian also indicates). There were enough gaps to be closed based on the above claim.

Morocco: 49 percent support rapid political change

So far, the public has been served up only a few interesting bits and pieces, and Morocco is one of the surprises on one issue. Who would have thought that Morocco would be the country with the largest percentage of its population, 49 percent, that would vote for a right-wing extremist party? "Rapid political change" is?

Surprisingly, Algeria does not appear here at all, where since the 22nd century there has been no political change. The opposition is now organizing, has a coordinator, and will hold a conference to call for a genuine change of system, despite the fact that the military is constantly increasing the dose of repressive measures. Thanks to this extraordinary steadfastness and perseverance, the opposition there has now also taken the next politically very important step: it is organizing, has a coordinator, and will hold a conference to draw up a roadmap "roadmap" .

The example of Algeria shows, unfortunately largely in the shadow of Western attention, how much it takes in Arab societies with a high proportion of youth, where little or nothing decisive has happened for years or decades, for everything to change.

Plotzlich is then the uprising there

Plotzlich is then the rebellion there and not so simply from the Strabe away to bring, if the power is so eroded that the Militar is not ready to proceed in the interior with brutal means as for instance in agypten. There they are very advanced with the preventive arrest of people working on a political opposition. For public justification, it is enough to scatter the suspicion that the persons are somehow connected with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Even in Tunisia, which has been mentioned several times in general and also here as the only country where the uprisings of 2011 have spurred an overall development for the better, the conditions are not as good as they used to be "FLUSH", as today showed, with two assassination attempts and rumors of the death of the elderly President Essebsi.

The considerations to emigrate fit the impression that arises from it: That the stagnant conditions in the Arab states, including Tunisia, whose leaders live in a bubble of power, are having increasing difficulty in meeting the needs and aspirations of their youth.

In addition, the economic models demanded and supported by Western countries, corporations and institutions (World Bank, IMF) in the Arab countries (which keeps many leaders and systems in power) are not very good, imaginative solutions to the problem "Youth unemployment problem" offer, because they mostly benefit only the already well-off, the propertied and the privileged. From the others they demand a lot of hard work and willingness to accept, but this does not necessarily lead to success in the "exploitation of opportunities" must lead.

The fact that, according to the Arab Barometer, religion is also becoming less important among young people does not make it any easier for the old and the followers of old models (including the fossilized groups Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood). Gigantic rubbing-leaf utopias, such as those set up by rich Saudi Arabia, also seem ineffectual and socially very old-fashioned off the track (Saudi giga-modernism: An entertainment city for the young).

The answer: More participation

The answer to how to do it better was to be heard at the protests in Algeria: more participation in shaping the future of the country – and not just in the "Cat table" and not to follow the guidelines of a tactically savvy political elite, which the opposition has been trying to defend itself against for several months.

They want to stay in their country, said participants in the demonstrations, in which the younger ones provided the main impetus, and Algerian supporters abroad said that they want to go back because a new perspective is opening up there. Ob das der Fall sein wird, kann man in den nachsten Wochen beobachten. What is happening in Algeria is a remarkable experiment.

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