Image: Michael Voss
Yougov presented a new prediction method, according to which the AfD, with 12 percent, loves the left behind it
The opinion research institute YouGov today presented the new method "Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification" (MRP) to calculate the possible outcome of the federal elections for the first and second votes. For this, 1,200 online surveys are conducted daily and linked to other statistical data such as age, gender, education and voting decision in the last federal election. It should be possible to see how different types of voters are likely to vote. Derived from this, we also determine what the outcome could be at the state and constituency level. Yougov claims to have predicted with this method before all other institutes that the Tories would lose their absolute majority in the House of Commons election.
According to the new method, it is predicted that the Union will reach 36 percent, more precisely, the corridor for a 95 percent confidence lies between 32 and 39 percent. 36 percent was roughly equivalent to the figure also determined by the Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, Forschunsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap and INSA institutes. Here the predictions fluctuate between 36 and 38 percent. The SPD does slightly better with 25 percent (22-28%) in YouGov than in the others, where the Social Democrats rank between 20 and 24 percent.
For the Grunen, however, the election could be close. Yougov estimates them at 6 percent and. Between 5 and 8 percent, while the others put them higher at 7-9 percent. According to the YOUGov method, the FDP also scored 7 percent less than the other institutes. The Left Party got 10 percent, with a confidence interval of 9-12 percent, while the other institutes put it between 8 and 11 percent. According to YouGov, the AfD has now become the third strongest party with 12 percent (10-14%), although the left also still had a chance of overtaking the right-wingers. In the other institutes, the AfD is between 8 and 12 percent.
According to YouGov, the new Bundestag would have 686 seats, which would be larger than the current one. Only a grand coalition would be possible, which is what it will probably come down to, or a Jamaica coalition of the CDU/CSU, the FDP and the Greens, should they actually manage to re-enter the parliament.
Interesting are some results that YouGov gives for the federal states. The CSU can't be completely satisfied, it only got 42 percent. This is thanks to the FDP's 8 percent share and, above all, the AfD, which became the third strongest party with 11 percent, causing the country to drift even further to the right. Also the left got 7 percent, as much as the Grunen, the SPD is dumping at 20 percent.
In Baden-Wurttemberg, too, 12 percent voted for the AfD, putting it in third place after the CDU and the SPD; the Greens came in at 9 percent. In general, the AfD is in third place in many states, not only in the eastern states (Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia), where they were elected with the exception of Brandenburg around 17 percent. In Brandenburg, the CDU was ahead of the Left Party, the SPD came in third, the Green Party only got 3 percent, the FDP 6 percent. According to this analysis, the AfD became the third strongest party in the western states alongside Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria in Hesse, Hamburg, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Schleswig-Holstein. Exceptions are Bremen and the Saarland, where the left could get more votes, in Berlin voted with 19 percent more the left, but also came the AfD on 15 percent, while for the Grunen only just 8 percent were votes.